Or so I reckon…
I got the second count figures off Twitter before RTÉ, incidentally. I guess that’s pretty representative of what’s happening in the Irish news media.
Still nobody elected! (Despite what John Bowman seemed to think…) Four candidates were eliminated – three no-hope protest independents, and a man who might well have been elected this time had his party not been in government: former mayor Niall Ó Brolcháin (Gr). Their votes went more to Connolly than anyone else, but the end result is that she still lies in that uncomfortable sixth place in a five-seat constituency – though by only 93 votes.
Come on Catherine. Come on, I’ve a fiver on ya.
(Not really. I leave gambling to the banking industry.)
But to elect both Brian Walsh and Fidelma Healy Eames, Fine Gael need a further 10,566 votes (more than a whole quota, though that’s not really relevant). Catherine Connolly needs just 5,127.
There are two other FG candidates now bound to be excluded, and they have – at the moment – 8,266 between them, so they alone can’t elect both their colleagues. The other independents, Sinn Féin, and Fianna Fáil have about 14,000 votes between them – none of which can be expected to transfer heavily FG’s way.
I think Connolly is in.