Tag: Galway

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Humour Politics

Ireland’s Election Explained

For the overseas audience, I should explain why our vote continues late into the night, through what appear to be endless recounts. Our system is called ‘Single Transferable Vote’, which means we only have a single vote between all of us. So we have to fight over it.

OK, I’ll be serious. We have a vote each. But rather than just give it to one candidate, we list the buggers in an order of preference. The count is actually a (fairly) simple mathematical game that transfers a vote from one to another until it settles into a comfortable position. The idea is that if you can’t have your first-preference candidate you may get your second – etc.

The system requires multiple-seat constituencies to work (you’ll see why later), the norm is three to five seats. Votes are checked for validity and counted, and the total number of valid votes is divided by the number of seats in the constituency. So say there are 50,000 valid votes cast in a 5-seat constituency, that gives 10,000. You need one more vote than that to “reach quota” and be elected.

The votes are then sorted into piles according to the first preference (or “number 1”) – which is the state of play shown here below, for the current election and the previous one:

First Prefs Graphic © Dave Fahy, Blacksquare.ie
© Dave Fahy, Blacksquare.ie

Quite a change, eh?

As you see, Fianna Fáil did not get a majority of first preference votes in a single constituency this time. If we used a simple First-Past-The-Post voting system here, they would win no seats at all. Before you say it’s a shame that we don’t then, I should point out that if we did use FPTP, Fianna Fáil would have won every previous election before today.

Every. Single. One.

Under our more scrupulous STV system, their percentage of the seats will be fairly close to their actual percentage of the vote. (About 17%, the way it looks at the moment.) The system is as fair as it’s possible to be in this respect.

If none of the candidates makes the quota on their first preference votes, the next move is the elimination (or ‘exclusion’) of the lowest-polling candidate. The votes in their pile are transferred to whoever is listed as the next preference. (Each vote is a list, remember). If after this redistribution someone reaches the quota, they’re elected. If no one does, the next-lowest candidate is eliminated, and so on.

(In practice, several of the lowest-polling candidates’ piles will often be redistributed at once.)

So what happens when a candidate is elected? Naturally, they almost always get more than the quota on the count that elects them, and the extra vote is called the “surplus”. Say the quota was ten thousand and a candidate has eleven thousand votes. They have a ten percent surplus, so ten percent of their votes are chosen randomly and distributed to the candidate listed as the next preference.

(The random part introduces a slight approximation, but it’s precise enough with large numbers.)

If the surplus doesn’t elect someone else they go back to eliminating people again. And so on until all the seats are filled. It’s somewhat baroque but hey, it’s fair – and it’s fantastically dramatic to watch.

Its disadvantage? Multi-seat constituencies mean local representatives are in competition with each other – not just at elections, but all the time. Even when they’re members of the same party. That makes politics… different. More on this some other time.

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Politics

Catherine Connolly To Get Galway West

Or so I reckon…

I got the second count figures off Twitter before RTÉ, incidentally. I guess that’s pretty representative of what’s happening in the Irish news media.

Still nobody elected! (Despite what John Bowman seemed to think…) Four candidates were eliminated – three no-hope protest independents, and a man who might well have been elected this time had his party not been in government: former mayor Niall Ó Brolcháin (Gr). Their votes went more to Connolly than anyone else, but the end result is that she still lies in that uncomfortable sixth place in a five-seat constituency – though by only 93 votes.

Come on Catherine. Come on, I’ve a fiver on ya.

(Not really. I leave gambling to the banking industry.)

But to elect both Brian Walsh and Fidelma Healy Eames, Fine Gael need a further 10,566 votes (more than a whole quota, though that’s not really relevant). Catherine Connolly needs just 5,127.

There are two other FG candidates now bound to be excluded, and they have – at the moment – 8,266 between them, so they alone can’t elect both their colleagues. The other independents, Sinn Féin, and Fianna Fáil have about 14,000 votes between them – none of which can be expected to transfer heavily FG’s way.

I think Connolly is in.

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Politics

West Shows The Way

Labour top poll! Contrary to expectations, FF’s Ó Cuív didn’t win the first count in Galway West. Labour’s Derek Nolan took the yellow jersey. It’s basically impossible for him not to be elected now.

The question is whether it is possible for both socialists to make it in. My own vote is currently resting with Catherine Connolly, who has just under half a quota. Noel Grealish (XPD) did well on the first count, so he seems secure. It looks very much therefore that the fifth seat in Galway West will be a fight between Connolly and a second Fine Gaeler – and at the moment there are two FG candidates (just) ahead of her.

As the other independents are eliminated, their votes will tend to go towards Connolly. The third FG candidate’s will obviously go mainly to FGs. Which will FF votes go to? That’s anyone’s guess.

I think Connolly can do it, but… We’re going to be up all night, people.

Nearby in Mayo meanwhile, two FG candidates – one the party leader Enda Kenny – have been elected on the first count. That’s extraordinary. It seems certain they will win four out of five of that constituency’s seats.

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Politics

Brian Lenihan, By The Skin Of His Neck

Does anyone believe that Brian Lenihan would have survived this election if he hadn’t turned his back on Brian Cowen?

His move against his leader would, at another time, have led to swift political termination. Fianna Fáil stands for nothing if not loyalty. (Actually, Fianna Fáil had come to stand for pretty much nothing except loyalty.) Yet now it seems likely that the only remaining FF representative in Dublin, the sole survivor of the Lenihan/O’Rourke dynasty, will be the one who turned on his leader.

Wait a while. Micheál Martin is wounded now by these election results – fatally so, I would imagine. How long before Lenihan attempts to reclaim the party for himself and his dynasty?

FF’s only TD in Dublin. I have to say that out loud. That still isn’t conceivable, even though it’s actually happening.

Under Bertie Ahern, FF attempted to portray itself as a party of the working class. Ahern even called himself “the last socialist”, though the claim was met with a mixture of laughter and blank incomprehension. It’s interesting though that once he went, that whole costume was sloughed off – as if Bertie was the only credible working-class Dubliner in the whole party.

Well now he is.

 

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Politics

Meanwhile, Back In The East…

Dammit, Galway West is being recounted! Before we even had a first count!!! Because of that FF table collapse perhaps? Shouldn’t have laughed…

Exciting things happening all around the country though. The socialists are back – Joe Higgins was elected, and this time he won’t be alone in the Dáil. The United Left Alliance will take at least four and possibly six seats. Combine that with Labour’s best-ever showing, easily outstripping the ‘Spring Tide’ of 1992, and there will be something like 45 seats on the left. It’s not a revolution, but it is a new ball game.

Bad news: it seems certain that Lucinda Creighton will be elected. She’s rapidly becoming a figure of hate among the young and liberal as she’s against Gay marriage. That would not be so surprising in Irish politics, except for the fact that she’s Fine Gael’s spokesperson on equality…

That’s the sort of government we’re getting folks. Even their equality spokesperson is against, you know, actual equality. The dragon may have been slain, but we will continue to be probably the most unequal society in Western Europe for some time to come.

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Politics

Meanwhile, Still In The West

Fianna Fáil here have collapsed. Literally. The folding table they were using just fell down. It’s widely being seem as pretty bloody symbolic. Frank Fahey, former minister, has conceded defeat. No surprise – he almost came to be seen as emblematic of the party’s endemic corruption.

Our leading Green candidate, Niall O’Brolcháin, has seen his vote taken out and shot. It is a shame. I like him. I like what he stood for. But at least Fianna Fáil party TDs had an excuse for supporting a FF government. The Greens will never be able to explain why it seemed like a good idea.

Count any second now. It’s looking very much as if FF will be reduced to a single seat.

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Politics

Meanwhile, Back West

Galway West is a sprawling constituency, so frustratingly we always seem to be one of the last in with a first count. Still another tense fifteen minutes. But counts are carried on in public, so impressions emerge. Interesting impressions.

Eamon Ó Cuív – De Valera’s grandson and Fianna Fáil’s leading candidate here – appears to be topping the poll. I ask you to contemplate that solemnly. On the brighter side, he looks to be falling short of being elected on the first count as might normally be expected. Such is the tribal FF grip, Fianna Fáil not winning too well is about the best we can hope for in Galway West.

Surprisingly, but excitingly, Labour’s Derek Nolan is coming second. He actually seems to have increased on the first-preference vote of his popular predecessor, Michael D. Higgins.

His surplus should largely go to former-Labour independent Catherine Connolly, so the dream of two left-wing seats here looks like it may come true. The next big question then is whether Noel Grealish, former leader of the defunct right-wing PD party, will survive. And if he does, will it be at the expense of FF?

For once, I think I’d actually like to see a PD elected…

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Politics

Get Up and Vote

P45 CartoonWe should be having a revolution here. Instead, if polls are to be believed, we may be electing a government even further to the right, even more willing to elevate rich over poor, than the one we are throwing away.

Don’t believe the polls, it’s too easy for such prophecies to become self-fulfilling. There is everything to play for right to the end. Which is why I’m up at 3:00 writing this so you can read it before you leave in the morning. It isn’t too late to send a message to all the political parties, to their wealthy friends, to the other countries of the EU. We are in a hole that was not made by the ordinary people of Ireland, and certainly not by those who are going to suffer the most because of it. The message is that we will not put up with this shit.

Don’t vote for Fine Gael to punish Fianna Fáil. There are much better punishments. Vote for people who don’t mince words about repudiating the awful “bailout” arrangement. That’s there to save the Euro, not us. Remember we have a hostage.

This means voting for out-there parties like the United Left Alliance – or even Sinn Féin. Few things would give the establishment more pause than a substantial rise in the SF vote. It also means voting for Labour, even if I am disappointed on the stand they’ve taken. Or lack thereof. Essentially we need Labour in government if there is to be any hope of the next few years not turning into an orgy of punishment for the poor.

Please, get out there now and warn those who act like they own us. Remind them where power really comes from.

Meanwhile, back in Galway West

My own constituency is going to go to the wire. While there are some laudable independents running, I don’t personally think any of them have a chance – except the ones who are independent more in name than in outlook. These are Noel Grealish, the ‘last PD’, and Labour’s lost candidate Catherine Connolly. It seems very likely that the final seat will be between these two, and I hardly need to tell you which is the vastly preferable outcome.

Indeed I like Catherine Connolly better than Labour’s official candidate, Derek Nolan. I’ll be putting her ahead in my order, and I hope a lot of others do too. I believe Galway West can elect them both.

And there may be an extra trick that more daring voters can play, if Kernan Andrews in the Galway Advertiser is correct:

Senator Healy Eames needs to outpoll Deputy Grealish and stay ahead of him to ensure she takes the seat. If she does, she will knock Grealish out and this will free up the last two seats for the Galway Left – which means victories for Labour’s Derek Nolan and Independent Catherine Connolly.

So that’s my only FG vote – Senator Fidelma Healy-Eames. Remember that name. She may help us simultaneously finish off the last PD and elect, for the first time in the history of Galway West, a second TD on the left.

Which… would be nice.

Categories
Humour

Clash of the Titanic Brains

Quiz CartoonWas in a table quiz the other night. Four from Galway¹ up against the finest of the Dublin media. A great turnout, we had quiz teams hanging from the rafters, all in support of a service for troubled teenagers called Reach Out and the Capuchin Day Centre for homeless people. But I wasn’t there for human kindness and Christian charity (dammit), I was there to be cleverer than other people!

So much for that. Came third.

But we wuz robbed – Definitely we should have had one more point in the first round. Though I suppose in fairness we made up for that when we traded an answer with some people from the Irish Times on the next table. Under house rules that meant we really should have paid €50 and left naked.

The questions didn’t suit us I guess. But, compiled by media celebrities, they were an interesting sample of questions that media celebrities compile. News priorities in catechismic form. A round of TV, a round of pop, a round of film, a round of sport², a special round for celebrity bollocks too trivial even for the other rounds.

No round on literature, or any cultural form less popular than cinema. Nothing on science. Not even the sort of science that actually gets on the news, like… well, medicine. No technology. Knowing who won the first X-Factor would stand you in much better stead than knowing, say, how TV actually works. But that’s how TV actually works. And the rest of the mainstream media³ these days.

I reject any inference that I’m a sore loser.

  1. Well one of us was only from near Galway. OK, Spain.
  2. Bizarrely, it was entirely on rugby. Compiled by George Hook…
  3. Interestingly, there was only one question on the new media. (Unless you count the one on who wrote the screen of The Social Network. And no, I don’t think you do.) Who founded Storyful? And I got it wrong… I thought it was Gavin Sheridan, but I was confusing it with his own thestory.ie. It was of course Mark Little.
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Politics

So How Should I Vote, Mr. Internet?

Posters are going up. Then blowing down. Then going up again. A lot of them are for independent candidates, which I think is great. Ideally we’d throw out every member of every party and start over with a Dáil full of people who are allowed to think. Though be careful – there are some out there who may appear to be independent but are just printing the words “Fianna Fáil” very, very small.

Poster CartoonThe one I see around here most is Noel Grealish¹. Well technically he’s independent, but being the guy left behind when the party’s over is not what that word usually brings to mind. There are plenty more independent independents out there, and I may vote for them all. Though one did annoy me today by thinking that a good place for a poster was a dangerous bend in the road.² Sure, people do slow down there. But we really shouldn’t be reading.

A couple of years back, shortly after the collapse, a Fianna Fáil woman was picking a fight with me in a wine bar late one night. “But who else is there?” was her refrain. Of course she wanted me to name some other party so she could argue that they were just as bad.³ I wasn’t having that. My answer was “Anyone. Anyone would be better than Fianna Fáil. You. Me. Some stranger off the street. Citizens selected by lottery. Anyone.”

I believed that passionately then, and even more now. Fianna Fáil’s central problem is that they have been in power too much. It leads not only to corruption, but to a different way of thinking. They come to inhabit a different culture – a ruling culture. We see it now in their inability to really grasp how betrayed the country feels.

But who do you actually vote for? The alternatives are, frankly, not terribly inspiring. Well we are blessed in this country with one of the best voting systems in the world. Yes it does have its disadvantages and probably could use some reform – though I certainly wouldn’t blame it for all the failings in our political culture – but while we still have it, we ought to make the best of it.

(For overseas readers: In brief, we vote by numbering the candidates in order of preference. I hope to explain the system better in the next day or so.)

You know who you’re against, but not who you’re for? I can sympathize – but it really doesn’t matter. One thing that makes the system great is that you can effectively vote against a party. If you just put the candidates in random order, leaving out the Fianna Fáil ones, you’ve made it that bit harder for FF to reach a quota.

It is better to have a real order of preference of course. That can become quite a game of skill, but there’s one good move that everyone should know: If you give your “Number One” to a candidate you expect to be elected, you’re virtually throwing it away. Electing someone is the last thing your vote should do. Well, perhaps the second or third last.

There is almost no such thing as a “wasted vote” in the Irish system. Your vote can always end up with an elected candidate if you wish. But once it does, it’s more or less finished. Yes, if a candidate gets more votes than the quota the surplus is distributed, but the actual ballots passed on are chosen randomly so the chances of yours being among them are poor. If your first candidate is eliminated however, your vote always passes on to your next choice. Line them up carefully and it can boost the chances of a whole series of protest or independent candidates before winding up with an elected one.

So you should never, ever not vote for a candidate because you think they have no chance. You lose nothing by trying it, and you might be pleasantly surprised.

  1. The last of the Progressive Democrats, a ‘New Right’ conservative party who are very much over.
  2. That last bad corner between Headford and Corrandulla, if you’re thinking of moving it.
  3. Well I suppose at the time she would have argued that they were actually worse, but “just as bad” is as high as a FF supporter dare shoot for these days.